Abstract
Major food crops that contain genetically engineered (GE) traits cannot be legally grown in China, despite major investments in biotechnology research and despite government decisions that GE maize, soybeans, and canola are safe to import and eat. The paper uses a political economy model to analyze why GE maize and GE rice have not been commercialized in China and whether they are like to be commercialized soon. This model draws on recently completed studies of consumers’ and business managers’ attitudes towards the safety and the profitability of GE rice and GE maize and on new publications of the potential economic impact of these crops. Consumer opposition and the absence of competitive GE traits from Chinese companies were two major factors constraining commercialization of GE food in the past. This paper predicts that GE maize is, however, likely to be commercialized in the near future due to recent developments in GE technology, the Chinese economy, and Chinese politics.