Abstract
There is a pressing need for biomarker-based models to predict mortality from and recurrence of
infection (CDI). Risk stratification would enable targeted interventions such as fecal microbiota transplant, antitoxin antibodies, and colectomy for those at highest risk. Because severity of CDI is associated with the immune response, we immune profiled patients at the time of diagnosis. The levels of 17 cytokines in plasma were measured in 341 CDI inpatients. The primary outcome of interest was 90-day mortality. Increased tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin 6 (IL-6), C-C motif chemokine ligand 5 (CCL-5), suppression of tumorigenicity 2 receptor (sST-2), IL-8, and IL-15 predicted mortality by univariate analysis. After adjusting for demographics and clinical characteristics, the mortality risk (as indicated by the hazard ratio [HR]) was higher for patients in the top 25th percentile for TNF-α (HR = 8.35,
= 0.005) and IL-8 (HR = 4.45,
= 0.01) and lower for CCL-5 (HR = 0.18,
≤ 0.008). A logistic regression risk prediction model was developed and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.91 for 90-day mortality and 0.77 for 90-day recurrence. While limited by being single site and retrospective, our work resulted in a model with a substantially greater predictive ability than white blood cell count. In conclusion, immune profiling demonstrated differences between patients in their response to CDI, offering the promise for precision medicine individualized treatment.
infection is the most common health care-associated infection in the United States with more than 20% patients experiencing symptomatic recurrence. The complex nature of host-bacterium interactions makes it difficult to predict the course of the disease based solely on clinical parameters. In the present study, we built a robust prediction model using representative plasma biomarkers and clinical parameters for 90-day all-cause mortality. Risk prediction based on immune biomarkers and clinical variables may contribute to treatment selection for patients as well as provide insight into the role of immune system in
pathogenesis.