Abstract
Objectives: This study examines incarceration as a turning point in criminal trajectories. It explores how offending behavior changes following incarceration and whether these changes vary based on prior offending patterns and specific prison experiences.
Methods: Using longitudinal data from 205 incarcerated women, we analyze offending trajectories over a ten-year period—five years before and five years after incarceration. We apply dual group-based trajectory modeling to identify patterns of continuity and change and assess whether transitions differ based on differential prison experiences, including victimization and access to employment. We complement the analysis with C-tests and growth-curve models.
Results: Continuity in offending is the most common pattern, particularly among individuals with low prior involvement. However, transitions—especially toward lower offending—are observed among those with higher pre-incarceration offending. Access to employment or training and the lack of visits correspond with transitions to less frequent offending.
Conclusions: Results are consistent with incarceration as a contingent turning point, with changes in pre- to post-incarceration offending varying by prior trajectories and tending to be gradual. Patterns related to prison conditions appear sensitive to selection processes and sample size, warranting replication.