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The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth: Long-Run Evidence, 1875-1997
Journal article   Open access  Peer reviewed

The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth: Long-Run Evidence, 1875-1997

Michael D Bordo and Joseph G Haubrich
The review of economics and statistics, Vol.90(1), pp.182-185
02/01/2008
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.1.182

Abstract

Notes
Abstract This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, and has been strongest in the post-World War II period.
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https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.1.182View
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