The merchandise trade statistics the United States publishes for its states are not statistics about state production, and the gap between the two is now one dollar in five. Goods that cross the border twice are counted twice, once each way. Census publishes a domestic-versus-foreign split of national exports, so the double counting can be removed there. No state series carries that split. Herein I estimate it for 2025 at the state by six-digit Harmonized System level, from the re-export rates Census does observe at its 45 customs districts. Re-exports come to $402.6 billion, or 19.44 percent of gross state-attributed exports; revalued to landed cost they remove $365.2 billion from general imports and leave an estimated $37.4 billion of gateway service output the states genuinely earn. The result is state export and import vectors compatible with economic-accounting concepts and valuations rather than physical border movements. The correction runs 59-fold across states, from 1.14 percent (Louisiana) to 66.94 percent (New Mexico). And it is growing: between 2022 and 2025 gross state exports rose $87 billion while domestically produced exports fell slightly; the entire published increase was goods passing through.
- What Passes Through: Re-exports and the Measurement of State-Level International Trade in the United States
- Michael L. Lahr (Author) - Rutgers University, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
- 2026
- Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
- English
- Working paper
- 991032362884404646